My thoughts on the US Q4 2015 GDP numbers


The US economy is not in a recession right now and the latest numbers on US GDP confirm this view. And while the headline growth number was weak, the consumer spending and personal income numbers are supportive of 2%ish growth into 2016. Some brief comments below

U.S. GDP growth came in at a very weak 0.7% annualized pace for Q4 2015, putting the full year’s growth at 2.4%. Now 2.4% is the same number we had in 2014. And while that is not a stellar number, it is very good by comparison to other large developed economies in the world. For example, everyone keeps extolling the Germans for a job well done. But growth there was 1.7% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2014, weaker than in the US. In Japan, GDP expanded 1.60% y-o-y in Q3 2015. There, the GDP annual growth rate has averaged 2% for the 35 years from 1981 to 2015. That’s what’s happening in the next two largest developed economies…

My thoughts on the US Q4 2015 GDP numbers

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