First Quarter GDP Growth Means Look Forward to Housing


If the Fed and all the optimists are correct, as the first quarter of 2015 moves further into the rear view mirror the winter will be seen as the transition from an economy growing on exports and capital investment to one getting back to its pre-recession roots of expansion – residential construction. Whether the housing market can grow enough in Q2 to offset consumer spending still under pressure from rising living costs versus wage growth, slower industrial production thanks to a stronger dollar and lower growth in car sales, and some likely inventory run off in Q2 as well, is another question.

Some on the FOMC believe the economy could expand 3% Q/Q in Q2’15, this is a heroic assumption. The bigger question, dilemma perhaps, for the FOMC comes in June when they face the combination of still mediocre growth while signs point to a rapidly ending disinflationary trend for core CPI. They will, of course, push out the goal posts on inflation, but it won’t necessarily be as easy a task as it was to push out the employment trigger for action…

First Quarter GDP Growth Means Look Forward to Housing

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