Black Swan Investing and the breakup of Europe


This isn’t going to be a thematic post on how to profit from Europe’s breakup, despite the sinister title. Instead, it’s a potpourri post – a mashup of different ideas I have right now and want to run by you to organize my thinking about them. I used to do this a lot more in the past – and I found it useful; I hope you did too. So for lack of a coherent theme, I chose the title above. Here goes.

A lot of what I have to say actually is about Europe. But there isn’t an overarching theme. I want to put the refugee crisis, populist politics, the Greek debt crisis and the Italian banking crisis all together here. I also want to talk about the strong dollar and Chinese interest rates. I haven’t figured out an organizing principal. But I then I saw a tweet by Ed Conway on how Crispin Odey lost 48% of his money this year despite his leading what is supposed to be a ‘hedge’ fund with good returns in good and bad times. And so I thought I would make this post about what these events mean for macro investors…

Black Swan Investing and the breakup of Europe

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